How Rising Temperatures in Japan are Impacting Matcha Supply
The escalating global demand for matcha has highlighted sustainability challenges for Japanese farmers.
Once considered a niche product, matcha is now a favored flavor around the world, featuring prominently in beverages and desserts. Alongside the consumer craze, soaring temperatures have exacerbated a new global dilemma by creating a scarcity of matcha for the first time.
Rising demand and sustainability challenges
The growing interest in matcha has precipitated a substantial strain on supply chains, leading to a sharp rise in prices. At a recent Kyoto auction, tencha – the tea leaves that are processed into matcha – saw a staggering 170% price increase compared to last year, reaching 8,235 yen per kg (around US$55.45). This surge surpassed the previous highest price recorded in 2016.
Data from the Japanese Tea Production Association reveals that in 2024, 5,336 tons of tencha were produced, reflecting a significant leap from a decade ago. The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has also reported that Japan's overall green tea exports, which include matcha, have seen a major uptick, with a 16% rise in volume and a 25% increase in value, amounting to 36.4 billion yen (approximately US$252 million).
A spokesperson from the government of Kyoto Prefecture explains: "It is difficult to calculate specific figures [regarding shortfall] because we are turning down exceptionally large orders from countries with high demand for tea, such as the United States, Germany and Dubai."
Globally, the enhanced caffeine content and antioxidant properties of matcha are fueling its popularity. However, the burgeoning demand is outpacing Japan's forecasted 2030 export target of 15,000 tons.
Impact of climate conditions on production
Besides high consumer demand, climate-related challenges have severely impacted matcha production, further aggravating supply issues. Japan endured soaring temperatures last summer, putting additional pressure on production.
The Kyoto region, which accounts for about 25% of the nation's tencha production, was hit by intense heatwaves. These adverse conditions weakened harvest yields between April and May. Masahiro Yoshida, a farmer with a long family history in tea cultivation, noted that last summer's intense heat damaged the bushes, resulting in a reduced harvest. Typically yielding 2 tonnes, his yield was down 25% to just 1.5 tonnes this year.
Although efforts are underway to establish new tea fields in response to growing demand, these fields will require approximately five years to reach maturation. This timeline suggests that matcha supply pressures may persist in the coming years.
The social debate and resource management
Online platforms, especially within communities like 'MatchaTok' on TikTok, have sparked discussions about the matcha shortfall. Enthusiasts, who regularly share their matcha experiences online, have found themselves in heated debates over issues of product hoarding and excessive use amid scarcity.
In response to this shortage, retail outlets in Japan have begun implementing purchase limits on matcha tins.
Anna Poian, Co-founder of the Global Japanese Tea Association, comments: "For the first time in history, we are experiencing a matcha shortage, since autumn of last year.”
She continues to explain that the tourism industry has faced a significant boom post-Covid-19, exacerbating the shortage.
"Many foreigners would buy lots of matcha to bring back home as souvenirs, sometimes even in bulk or sometimes, we've heard, to resell."
Despite agricultural advancements aiming to boost production to meet demand, the ongoing high demand threatens sustainability and the ability of farmers to cope.
The consistent hoarding of this sought-after product is further amplifying the problem, a situation compounded by the need for new plantations to mature before they can significantly impact production capacity.