Bain & Company: Should Net Zero Aims be Pushed Back to 2070?
The Paris Agreement’s goal of reaching 45% reduced emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 is closely approaching.
Bain & Company’s annual survey of more than 700 executives across oil and gas, utilities, chemicals, mining and agribusiness reveals a striking shift in net zero goals.
The survey reveals that almost half of all energy and natural resources (ENR) executives won't reach net zero until 2070.
Delayed net zero ambitions
Industry leaders across ENR sectors are becoming increasingly pessimistic about reaching net zero emissions, according to the latest survey.
The 2025 survey, conducted shortly after COP29, highlights key challenges companies face amid escalating costs, shifting investment priorities and surging energy demand.
Around 44% expect global net zero emissions only by 2070 or later, while only 32% anticipate actually reaching this target by 2050.
Two years ago, nearly half of respondents believed net zero could be achieved by 2050.
Executives from oil and gas sectors estimate peak oil demand will occur by 2038, considerably later than the 2030 forecast from bodies like the International Energy Agency.
The survey states that higher costs and tight budgets mean companies struggle to justify transition-related investments without clear financial returns.
The top barrier of scaling transition-focused initiatives remains customer willingness to pay higher prices.
Lack of shareholder support also intensified as an obstacle, with 68% citing it as significant – up from 49% last year.
Rising costs of projects
Executives face rapidly rising capital project costs, with nearly a third seeing double-digit percentage increases in the past year.
Cost escalations have prompted reconsideration and delays of projects, with executives now prioritising stricter project scoping, better capital allocation and leveraging digital technologies such as artificial intelligence to enhance efficiency and outcomes.
Confidence in the profitability of transition-oriented businesses has weakened overall.
Only 25% of executives are more optimistic about such ventures, compared to 33% who are less optimistic.
However, optimism remains for specific technologies, notably AI, energy storage, renewable energy, circular economy initiatives and carbon capture and storage.
Utilities are cautiously optimistic about managing soaring electricity demands from data centres driven by AI growth.
“There are two major topics at the top of executives’ agendas: managing capital cost inflation and driving transformation through AI and enterprise resource planning (ERP),” explains Grant Dougans, a partner and leader in Bain’s Energy & Natural Resources practice.
“For many, ERP transformation is no longer just an IT upgrade—it’s a strategic imperative.
“As software vendors phase out support for legacy systems, companies are realising that modernising their ERP can unlock powerful new business capabilities and technology tools, such as AI-driven demand forecasting, to drive efficiency and growth.”
By 2027, the survey predicts that AI facilities may double their consumption, accounting for 2.6% of global power demand; however, addressing this could require more than US$2tn in new generation infrastructure.
To meet demand, utilities executives prioritise renewable investments, extending the life of existing assets and expanding natural gas generation.
Many utilities intend to share costs by raising prices and pursuing co-investments with data centre customers.
A digital transformation
The survey states that ENR leaders increasingly view digital technologies as essential.
Over 70% of executives have grown more confident about AI's business value, and more than 60% plan significant ERP system transformations within three years.
Executives now recognise these upgrades as strategic drivers for enhancing business functions such as operations, finance and supply chains.
“Our findings make clear that what has been described as the energy transition is better understood as the dual challenge of delivering ever-increasing volumes of energy while simultaneously pushing to decarbonise,” says Joe Scalise, Partner and Global Head of Energy & Natural Resources at Bain & Company.
“Executives remain optimistic that meaningful decarbonisation is on the horizon, perhaps just not as quickly as they originally imagined.
“The industry is going through a period of great innovation and transformation, and executives’ agendas are fuller than ever. Those that remain hyper focused on enacting their priorities amid this barrage of challenges will lead the way in the next era of energy.”
As the industry navigates unprecedented complexity, leaders who balance legacy energy supply with low-carbon innovations, rethink capital project management and effectively deploy digital technologies will shape the future of energy and natural resources.
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