Should We Be Worried by Elnur Soltanov COP29 Controversy?

Over the next two weeks Azerbaijan will play host to COP29, one of the, if not the most important events in the year for sustainability.

World leaders alongside the most influential companies and charities from around the globe have arrived in Baku for the event heralded as the ‘finance COP’. 

COP28, hosted last year in the UAE, caused many discussions around the role of oil and gas companies in the future of sustainability. Many environmentalists called for the complete “phase out” of fossil fuels, with the conclusion of a “phase down” not quite hitting the mark for some.

COP29 has been very public in its intention to include all sectors – including oil and gas – in the conference. After all, if we are going to achieve the goals set out in The Paris Agreement, everyone has a part to play. 

However, a recent undercover investigation by International NGO Global Witness is raising concerns that the involvement of fossil fuels in Azerbaijan goes beyond sustainable interests.

In a meeting about sponsorship of the United Nations Climate Change Convention as part of the undercover investigation Elnur Soltanov, CEO of COP29, discussed investments in “gas fields that are to be developed".

Not a good look for COP29 as it heads into the conference.

About Elnur Soltanov, CEO of COP29

As COP29’s CEO, Elnur Soltanov will coordinate the Presidency’s activities and the delivery of its agenda, alongside representing the Presidency at multilateral forums to advance climate action.

Currently serving as Azerbaijan’s Deputy Minister of Energy, a role he has held since 2018, Elnur has also served as Dean at the School of Public and International Affairs and Director of the Caspian Energy and Environment Center.

He holds a PhD in Political Science from Texas Tech University, where he also taught, and holds both Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees in international relations from the Middle East Technical University in Turkey.

The role of oil and gas at COP

The oil and gas industry is responsible for around 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

At the closing of COP28 in 2023, António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, said: “Science tells us that limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees will be impossible without the phase out of all fossil fuels.

“To those who opposed a clear reference to a phase out of fossil fuels in the COP28 text, I want to say that a fossil fuel phase out is inevitable whether they like it or not.  

“Let’s hope it doesn’t come too late.”

This isn’t the first controversy around COP29 and fossil fuels – countries including Papua New Guinea have announced that they will not be going at all.

Prime Minister Marape said, “Our non-attendance this year will signal our protest at the big nations – these industrialised nations who are big carbon footprint holders for their lack of quick support to those who are victims of climate change, and those of us who are forest and ocean nations.

“We are protesting to those who are always coming in to these COP meetings, making pronouncements and pledges, yet the financing of these pledges seem distant from victims of climate change and those like PNG who hold substantial forests.”

‘Fossil fuels’ in the COP29 Presidency Action Agenda Letter

The COP29 Presidency Action Agenda Letter, released in September 2024, details plans for the conference. 

“Fossil fuels” are mentioned only four times – three in relation to the Climate Finance Action Fund (CFAF) and once in relation to modernising power grids for renewables.

The CFAF will be launched at COP29 and will collect voluntary contributions from fossil fuel-producing companies and companies, with an aim of reaching US$1bn in this first round.

The letter says that half of this fund will support climate projects in developing countries and half will be allocated to help meet members’ next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). 

There is no mention of further negotiations on phasing down or out fossil fuel use.

What progress has been made to “phase down” fossil fuels since COP28?

COP28’s agreement to transition away from fossil fuels has not been heard by some.

In October 2024, a report revealed that Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil company Socar aims to raise annual fossil gas production 12 billion cubic metres by 2033.

In August 2024, it was reported that the UK could approve 13 new oil and gas licences in the North Sea. 

The International Energy Agency says that fossil fuels must be phased out or substantially reduced to reach net zero worldwide by 2050.

It’s not all negative though – 75 governments have committed to not building new coal plants and 25 have stopped pursuing coal projects.

With the conference kicking off next week, only time will tell – and we don’t have long to wait.

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