ECIU: Why Major Economies are Decoupling from Emissions

Decoupling, which means breaking the link between economic growth and emissions, is happening at scale, according to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).

The ECIU's most recent report analyses global decoupling, showing how a share of the world’s economy is managing to grow while cutting carbon.

10 Years Post-Paris report

The ECIU has released its report, 10 Years Post-Paris: How Emissions Decoupling has Progressed Globally, which assesses decoupling on a global scale.

The study uses the Global Carbon Budget data across 113 countries which represent more than 97% of global GDP and 93% of global emissions.

Its approach aims to evaluate the number of countries decoupling, as well as their share of global economic output and emissions.

There are two types of decoupling, as referenced in ECIU’s report:

• Absolute decoupling: when emissions are declining even when the economy is expanding
• Relative decoupling: when emissions are still increasing but at a slower rate than economic growth.

John Lang, one of the report authors and Net Zero Tracker Lead at ECIU, says: “We’re sometimes told the world can’t cut emissions without cutting growth. The opposite is happening.

“Decoupling is now the norm, not the exception – and the share of the global economy that is decoupling emissions in an absolute sense is steadily increasing.”

The results of ECIU’s study

The ECIU’s study reveals that 92% of global GDP and 89% of global emissions are in economies that have decoupled, either relatively or absolutely.

This is up from 77% for both figures in the decade before the Paris Agreement.

Between 2015 and 2023, countries representing more than 46% of the global GDP absolutely decoupled, up from 38% in the pre-Paris Agreement period.

The number of countries achieving absolute decoupling rose from 32 pre-Paris to 43 post-Paris, with those achieving relative decoupling rising from 35 to 40.

Gareth Redmond-King, Head of International at ECIU, says: “The momentum built by the Paris Agreement is unstoppable – the economic realities make it so.

“Net zero remains the only solution to halting ever more costly and dangerous impacts from climate change.

“That it also offers better health, growth and jobs and food security can only continue to build the momentum achieved during the first decade of the Paris Agreement.”

What do these results mean for organisations?

The report shows long-term trends in the data, revealing that more countries are decoupling over time and they represent a growing share of the world economy.

At the country level, the momentum shows that decoupling is becoming more widespread.

For organisations across the world, it means that their sustainability strategies are working to help bring decarbonisation across their operations as well as in their economies.

The ten year anniversary of the Paris Agreement reminds companies and governments that the 1.5 C scenario is just as relevant today as it was in 2015.

Tanya Steele CBE, CEO of WWF UK, said on LinkedIn: “In a world of rising temperatures and declining nature, it’s all too easy to be pessimistic.

“But the Paris Agreement reminds us that the world can come together to envisage – and set out on the path to – a better future.

“So the Paris message is simple – global co-operation works. But we now need to redouble our efforts – and alongside countries working together, they must show individual leadership too.

“The UK can do that by committing funding to the Tropical Forest Forever Facility; making a relatively small investment to help secure the future of the world’s greatest forests, whose survival and restoration is absolutely vital to the fight against climate change.”

The ECIU says that achieving global net zero CARBON requires building a sustained, structural decline in emissions.

Many economies are on their way to decoupling and the foundations for accelerated absolute emissions reductions are in place, according to the ECIU.

Mafalda Duarte, Executive Director of the Green Climate Fund (GCF), said on LinkedIn: “This anniversary is a moment of reflection and a call to finish the job Paris began.

“As the world’s climate fund for developing countries, mandated to serve the Paris Agreement, GCF has grown into the largest multilateral provider of adaptation finance and a leading mobiliser of public and private capital for climate solutions.

“But the next decade must deliver more: more determination in taking bold decisions; more focus on implementation and delivery of impact at the scale needed; backed by much greater ambition to provide finance at the right terms and conditions.”