Shell's Energy Security Scenarios: Is Net Zero Possible?

This month, Shell released the third edition of its Energy Security Scenarios report – a continuing series in which the company uses predictive modelling to map potential futures for the global energy system.

Following earlier editions in 2023 and 2025, the latest report outlines three distinct scenarios – ‘Archipelagos’, ‘Surge’ and ‘Horizon’ – each describing how the world’s energy landscape could evolve by 2100. Together, they help interpret today’s complex energy moment: one where fossil fuels still supply 80% of global power, even as renewable capacity has grown tenfold in the past decade.

Shell’s analysis goes beyond the energy system itself, integrating factors like trade wars, artificial intelligence and climate politics to build three sharply contrasting visions of the coming century.

Dr Mallika Ishwaran, Shell’s Chief Economist and a member of the Shell Scenarios team, appeared on The Energy Podcast – produced by Shell – to discuss the multidisciplinary nature of the process.

“Scenarios are genuinely a multidisciplinary effort," she explains. "The process of developing the scenarios draws on, firstly, the knowledge and expertise in energy markets and energy modelling.

“It incorporates economics, whether that is the macroeconomic context for the scenarios or the economics around specific technologies, policies or behaviour changes.

“And finally it brings in the geopolitical lens that is so essential when thinking about energy. It is a combination of these different perspectives that provides a richness to our scenarios.”

Archipelagos: When security trumps everything

Archipelagos imagines a world where nations turn inward – trade disputes escalate, critical minerals become geopolitical weapons and governments prioritise domestic control over low-cost or low-carbon imports.

Global GDP reaches around US$315tn by 2060, while coal remains entrenched far longer than climate advocates would hope. In this world, China accelerates solar deployment to reduce reliance on imported fuels, but elsewhere the energy transition falters.

The report notes that "priorities shift towards domestic resources and opportunism in trade, both of which tend to favour fossil fuel use.”

Carbon capture technology struggles as investment dries up, and by 2100 global temperatures climb by 2.5°C – with fossil fuels still supplying a quarter of global energy. Against this backdrop, the Paris Agreement feels distant history.

All sustainability, net zero and sustainable supply chain leaders should attend:

• Sustainability LIVE: The Net Zero Summit - QEII Centre, London, March 4-5
• Sustainability LIVE: The US Summit - Navy Pier, Chicago, April 21-22

Co-located with Procurement & Supply Chain LIVE, these events brings together CSOs, ESG leaders and senior decision-makers at a moment when sustainability, supply chains and commercial performance are increasingly interconnected.

Tickets can be booked online today for The Net Zero Summit and The US Summit. Group discounts available.

Surge: Could AI change everything?

In stark contrast, the Surge scenario envisions a technology-driven boom where digital firms evolve into energy powerhouses. Their vast data centres consume 5,000 terawatt-hours of electricity by 2050 – about 8% of global demand – prompting them to build renewable capacity at scale.

Armed with capital and logistical know-how, these companies mass-produce solar panels, batteries, and hydrogen technologies as efficiently as smartphones. Global GDP soars to US$400tn by 2060 as AI supercharges productivity.

Small modular nuclear reactors reach maturity in the 2040s, initially powering data centres before extending to factories and shipping. By the late 2040s, China launches its first nuclear-powered vessels; by 2090, the technology dominates maritime transport.

Despite surging demand, this world achieves net zero by 2080, with temperatures peaking at 2.1°C in the 2080s and edging down to 2.0°C by century’s end. The scenario underscores that robust economic growth and climate action can coexist – if enabling technologies scale fast enough.

Horizon: The brutal arithmetic of 1.5°C

Horizon sets out what it would truly take to meet the Paris Agreement – and the picture is sobering. Hitting net zero by 2050 would mean retiring still-functional power plants, imposing steep carbon prices, and mandating bans on petrol cars regardless of public resistance.

Governments would have to make deeply personal interventions – from restricting where wind turbines can be built to influencing diets and travel. Even then, the world overshoots 1.5°C; with current warming already at 1.3°C and emissions yet to peak, the margin for error is razor-thin.

The scenario foresees capturing more than seven gigatonnes of CO₂ annually by 2050 – up from just 50 million tonnes today, a 140-fold jump. Europe emerges as a case study in difficulty: despite legislating net zero by 2050, emissions in 2040 still exceed its targets, forcing heavy reliance on international carbon credits.

The mineral bottleneck

All three pathways converge on one glaring constraint: the supply of copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt. In the Horizon model alone, copper demand triples to 60 million tonnes per year by 2050.

The challenge is not scarcity but geopolitics – China dominates refining capacity, and new mines can take 15 years from discovery to production. Meanwhile, India and Africa, home to 1.5 billion people today and potentially five billion by 2100, hold decisive influence. Should they reproduce China’s coal-dependent pathway, the global climate calculations collapse.

Shell’s projections suggest these regions could leapfrog directly to solar and battery systems, yet Archipelagos warns how trade barriers and funding gaps could derail that trajectory.

The company is careful to stress that these scenarios are not predictions but frameworks. “Only governments can create the framework necessary for society to meet the Paris Agreement's goal,” the report concludes. What the document makes clear is how dramatically the world’s energy future could diverge – depending on the choices made in the decade ahead.