Deloitte: How Can We Fix The Global Food System?
By 2070, the global population is expected to reach nearly 10 billion, requiring a 40% increase in calorie production to meet demand.
Yet, achieving this must not come at the cost of the planet.
A Deloitte report sets out a compelling case for system-level transformation of the global food system, one that boosts food security, limits environmental harm and brings substantial economic gains
Deloitte predicts that this will result in potentially adding US$121tn to global GDP by 2070, while helping to feed an additional 300 million people.
Boosting production and food security
Deloitte analysis shows that sustainable transformation could increase global food production by 9.2%, equivalent to an additional US$22tn in output across the next five decades.
The world could generate 1,030 trillion extra calories in 2070, enough to meet the nutritional needs of an additional 1.6 billion people.
However, this requires system-wide collaboration across finance, technology, producers, supply chains and government.
“The way we have historically increased food production is no longer viable,” says Dr. Pradeep Philip, Partner at Deloitte Australia.
“Sticking to the status quo will continue to exacerbate hunger and drive up food prices, which is not an option.
“Feeding the world sustainably requires large-scale, fundamental change.
“Across every part of the global economy, we must align our goals and objectives to transform our food systems, whether through investment in agricultural research and development, protection of our land, water, and ecosystems or continued decarbonisation efforts.”
Today, almost 10% of the global population, about 730 million people, remain undernourished.
Sustainable transformation could reduce global food prices by 16%, making healthier diets more affordable and reducing undernourishment by 300 million people.
Deloitte suggests that regions where hunger is most prevalent would receive a significant share of the additional calories.
Justice for low income countries
Lower-income regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, Oceania and South America are positioned to gain the most from sustainable transformation.
These countries could see a 12% GDP rise and an increase of up to 626 calories per person per day by 2070.
“The world is facing a burgeoning ‘polycrisis’ of our global food system, given that the combination of climate change, biodiversity loss, a strain on finite resources and smaller harvests significantly hinders our ability to feed the world sustainably,” says Randy Jagt, Deloitte Global Future of Food leader.
“Transforming our global food system to focus on sustainability will not only address each of these challenges but will significantly benefit populations already disproportionately impacted by food insecurity and climate change, supporting the communities that need it most.”
The concentration of added calories is expected to grow in regions with the most acute hunger.
The price of inaction
Failing to act could cost the global economy US$190tn by 2070.
The value of primary food production, crops, livestock, dairy and fisheries, could fall by US$13tn.
As well as production losses, food manufacturing and services could see an additional US$12tn in losses.
Land used for agriculture may expand by 13%, encroaching on vital ecosystems and further stressing finite natural resources.
“COP29 is a pivotal moment for global leaders to come together to weigh the significant costs of inaction on climate change, which could have tremendous impacts for both human well-being and the global economy,” says Jennifer Steinmann, Deloitte Global Sustainability Business leader.
“Investing in and supporting sustainable food systems has the potential to lift hundreds of millions of people out of malnourishment, conserve resources, and mitigate climate change.
“This is a critical opportunity to not only limit the adverse impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, but also boost the global economy across industries at the same time.”
Feeding the world sustainably is a global imperative that requires immediate, collaborative action across all sectors and regions.
The rewards are vast include lower emissions, improved food security and economic growth however, the risks are even greater.
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