Will Climate Change Cost the 2026 FIFA World Cup US$800m?
Football – or soccer – fans, clubs and stadiums in Canada, Mexico and the US are preparing to host the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
This is only the second time that the major football tournament has taken place in North America, the first being 1994.
The 23rd World Cup will be the first to feature 48 teams and will consist of 104 games hosted across three countries in 12 venues.
The World Cup is expected to bring a lot of tourism to the areas, boosting the local economies.
These 12 venues are, however, projected to lose US$800m due to climate change by 2050.
Climate hazards pose a costly risk
Leading climate risk data analytics company Climate X has assessed the 12 American World Cup venues and the 25 largest football venues by capacity in Europe.
The research, conducted using Climate X’s Spectra platform, assessed 37 FIFA stadiums for exposure to 10 major climate hazards, including:
- Surface flooding
- Tropical cyclones
- Wildfires
- Extreme heat.
The report, which covers 2020 to 2050 under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 climate scenario, shows that financial losses for the stadiums will grow at pace, from US$130m in 2020 to an estimated US$800m by 2050.
“This data is a stark reminder of the mounting threats climate change poses to the infrastructure underpinning global events,” says Lukky Ahmed, CEO of Climate X.
“As we celebrate the world’s love for football, we must also confront the sobering reality that some of the sport’s most cherished venues are at risk.
“Stakeholders must take immediate action to safeguard these assets and ensure the sustainability of future events.”
The report ranks each stadium’s risk based on total loss in dollars and percentages, comparing projected damages from climate hazards to the stadium’s current replacement cost and its known vulnerabilities.
Which stadiums are most at risk?
Three of the top six stadiums are located in Florida, in line with other ClimateX research that has ranked Florida’s Inter&Co Stadium and Camping World Stadium highest for hazard exposure.
Other high-risk venues include:
- Lincoln Financial Field (Pennsylvania, USA)
- Principality Stadium (Wales, UK)
- Estadio Benito Villamarín (Spain)
- TQL Stadium (Ohio, USA)
Three of the venues are projected nearly 40% of the total projected losses by 2050, and the US venues, particularly those in coastal or high-heat areas, generally ranked higher than the European stadiums.
Key threats are surface flooding and extreme heat, with some venues facing combined annual losses equivalent to nearly 2% of their current replacement value.
By 2050, venues joining the highest risk group include:
- Velodrome (France)
- Oaka Stadium (Greece)
- Hard Rock Stadium (Florida)
- Camping World Stadium (Florida)
- Inter&Co Stadium (Florida)
- Estadio Benito Villamarín (Spain)
“Football stadiums are more than sporting venues - they are economic and cultural linchpins for local communities,” explains Lukky.
“Rising climate risks could lead to increased repair costs, disruptions to events, and soaring insurance premiums.
“For host cities of the FIFA World Cup, these risks could have far-reaching consequences for their local economies.”
Meet Climate X
As climate change becomes increasingly impactful, companies like Climate X are created to help organisations to understand and respond.
Founded in 2020, Climate X focuses on analysing climate risk data by creating digital twins of real-world assets.
By analysing 500 trillion data points, the platform enables customers - including banks, mortgage lenders and real estate firms – to assess and manage the risks climate change poses to their assets and business operations.
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