WMO & UK Met Office: Temperatures May Exceed 1.5°C By 2030

Annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026 to 2030 are predicted to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average.

The Global Annual-to-Decadal Update by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), produced by the UK Met Office, observes the climate over the past five years, providing regional predictions for temperatures and precipitation for the next five years to come.

The report states that there is a likely (86%) chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record.

Exceeding 1.5°C near-surface temperature

According to the report, it is extremely likely (91%) that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the 1850 to 1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.

In 2024, this level was temporarily exceeded when the average surface temperature reached 1.55°C above the pre-industrial baseline.

The five year mean temperature between 2026 to 2030 is likely (75% chance) to exceed 1.5°C above the 1850 to 1900 average, there is less than 1% chance that it will exceed 2°C.

The five-year predicted average temperature in the central tropical Pacific (Niño 3.4 region) indicates a tendency towards El Niño conditions, particularly in 2027 to 2028, it says.

“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” says Dr Leon Hermanson, Expert Scientist at the UK Met Office and lead author of the report.

The role of the UK Met Office

The updates have been produced by the UK Met Office due to its role as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction.

The Met Office provides a synthesis of predictions that 13 institutes, including four Global Producing Centres, contributed to, including: 

• Barcelona Supercomputer Centre
• Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
• Deutscher Wetterdienst
• The Met Office.

Confidence in forecasts of annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature is high since hindcasts show very high skill.

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The 1.5°C (and 2.0°C) levels specified in the Paris Agreement refer to long-term warming sustained over an extended period, typically assessed over 20 years.

The report emphasises that individual years with annual global mean temperatures exceeding levels do not mean that the goals within the Paris Agreement are out of reach.

“Global temperatures are expected to stay at or near record highs over the next five years,” writes Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of WMO, on LinkedIn.

“This according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization produced by the UK Met Office. 

“It is important to listen to the science so that we can better plan for agriculture, water resources, health systems, energy demand and disaster preparedness around the world.”

WMO and The UK Met Office state that temporary exceedances are expected to occur with increasing frequency due to the underlying rise in global temperatures approaching these levels.

High precipitation and key findings

According to the report, Arctic temperatures over the next five extended northern hemisphere winters (November-March) are expected to be 2.8°C above average temperatures for 1991 to 2020.

This expectation represents an anomaly more than three and a half times that of the global mean temperature anomaly over the same period.

Sea-ice is expected to suffer even more within the next nine years.

Predictions of Arctic sea-ice for March 2026 to 2035 suggest further reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.

Precipitation forecasts indicate wetter-than-average conditions at high northern latitudes during the next five extended winter seasons. 

The projected pattern of increased precipitation across the tropics and high latitudes, relative to the 1991 to 2020 baseline, alongside reduced precipitation in the subtropics, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, is consistent with expectations under a warming climate.

For the May to September period of 2026 to 2030, forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of above-average rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, while below-average precipitation is more likely across the Amazon region.

The update provides regional outlooks for all WMO regions and highlights South-Eastern Europe as an example of an area with substantial variability in December–February precipitation. 

Following several unusually dry years, which contrasted with the predominantly wet conditions experienced since 2009, forecasts indicate that the period 2026 to 2030 may see above-average precipitation. 

These forecasts are intended to support Regional Climate Centres, Regional Climate Outlook Forums and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.