How Amazon Deforestation Hit an 11-Year Low Ahead of COP30

Brazil has announced that deforestation in the Amazon rainforest fell 11% in the 12 months to July 2025, reaching an 11-year low of 5,796 square kilometres.

The announcement comes just days before Brazil hosts COP30, the UN climate summit, in Belém.

This is the fourth consecutive year of declining deforestation in the Amazon and the second under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who took office in 2023.

The data, released by the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), shows that forest loss has been cut by half since the beginning of Lula's term.

"Against all odds and after years of grim headlines, Brazil has achieved what many thought impossible: deforestation in the Amazon Rainforest has fallen by more than 55%," says Gilad Regev, Founder of Kora.

Brazil's Environment Minister Marina Silva has also expressed surprise at the rapid progress.

"Even in my best-laid plans I would never have imagined that we would reach this point with a 50% reduction in deforestation," Marina told a press conference.

The threat of wildfires in the Amazon

While levels of deforestation are plummeting in Brazil, the frequency of wildfires is skyrocketing. In 2024, the Amazon experienced a record number of fires which, while alarming, suggests that anthropogenic deforestation is falling at a faster rate than the statistics indicate.

Fires swept through an area roughly the size of Costa Rica last year, representing a 526% increase from the previous year. However, Brazil's monitoring system only classifies areas as deforested if they have lost more than 70% of their original vegetation.

The 2024 drought, driven by climate change, created unprecedented conditions for fire spread across the rainforest.

Rhett Ayers Butler, Founder and CEO of Mongabay, has warned that these kinds of risks are a symptom of years of unchecked logging.

"While land clearing has slowed, another threat looms," he says. "Fires now play a larger role in forest loss. Degradation from logging, roads and fragmentation, combined with hotter, drier conditions, is turning wide stretches of the Amazon into tinder.

"Areas that once lay deep within the forest's humid interior are drying out, leaving them exposed when agricultural burns escape control."

Is Brazil under pressure ahead of COP30?

President Lula has pledged to achieve zero net deforestation across Brazil by 2030, though his current presidential term ends in January 2027.

Though goals like these are well-regarded, the Lula administration has been subject of criticism for some controversial infrastructure projects.

The government is currently under pressure for authorising state-run oil company Petrobras to drill near the mouth of the Amazon River, just a few hundred miles from Belém.

This proximity of the drilling to the climate conference has drawn criticism, as was the case when a four-lane highway was constructed through the Amazon ahead of the summit.

Still, the decrease in deforestation is a cause for hope. Ana Toni, CEO of COP30, frames the trend as evidence that ambitious climate targets are achievable.

"Now, with just a week remaining before our leaders gather in Belém for the COP30 Brazil Leaders Summit, these results show it is possible to end deforestation by the end of the decade," she says.

"They are also proof that solid national policies and strong political commitment lead to significant progress in the fight against climate change."

For people like Marina, though, the work is far from over. "When we achieve a good result, we have to move on to the next challenge," she explains. "We cannot rest on our laurels. Our challenge is to reduce deforestation to zero by 2030."