COP30: Is the 1.5°C Climate Target Still Within Reach?

A study published by Climate Analytics, a non-profit climate science organisation, suggests that the 1.5°C climate target remains achievable, directly contradicting recent reports from the UN Environment Programme and climate modelling studies that declared the goal effectively dead.

The report arrives as world leaders gather in Belém, Brazil, for COP30, where just half of all 197 countries have submitted the national climate plans that are required as part of the Paris Agreement.

Nevertheless, Climate Analytics suggests that global warming could peak at 1.7°C before 2050, then decline to 1.5°C by the century's end if the world's leaders pursue policies of aggressive fossil fuel phase-out and the rapid adoption of carbon removal technologies.

This stands in sharp contrast to the UNEP's Emissions Gap Report, published last week, which found that current trajectories make exceeding 1.5°C inevitable within the next decade.

Decarbonisation: the gap between ambition and action

In its damning report published last week, the UNEP analysed all of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that were submitted by countries ahead of COP30.

Worryingly, the body found that current pledges would only deliver a 10% cut in global emissions by 2035. If these projections are accurate, the goal of limiting temperature rises to 1.5°C would be impossible.

Instead, the UNEP projected that warming of 2.3°C to 2.5°C is likely, while temperature rises as high as between 2.6°C to 3.3°C are foreseeable based on the current trajectory.

The Economist's climate models, updated this year, also show no theoretical routes remaining to the 1.5°C goal, with the planet set to exhaust its remaining carbon budget of 80-130 billion tonnes by the decade's end.

Climate Analytics counters both of these suggestions, however. The organisation says that global emissions must fall by 20% by 2030 compared with 2019 levels, then by 11% annually through the 2030s to limit warming to 1.7°C.

Methane cuts of 30% by 2035 would also be required.

Financial sector faces mounting pressure

The diverging assessments carry significant implications for financial institutions and insurers already grappling with climate risk exposure.

"Big flag for the insurance world: the United Nations Environment Programme's latest report says the planet is now on track for a 2.3-2.5°C temperature rise this century – well past the 1.5°C goal," says Marcos Alvarez, MD of Global Financial Institution Ratings at Morningstar DBRS.

"For insurers, this isn't just a climate headline – it's a direct signal that the 'rare' events are becoming more routine. Claims from extreme weather will hit more often, premiums may have to rise and capital cushions could get squeezed."

The insurance sector has seen mounting losses from extreme weather events, with climate-related claims accelerating as temperatures have exceeded 1.5°C for two consecutive years.

Tipping points and temporary overshoot

António Guterres, the UN's Secretary-General, has also acknowledged the failure to prevent overshoot in some of his most recent press briefings. He does, however, emphasise the urgency of limiting the duration and magnitude of global warming.

"The 1.5°C limit of global warming is a red line for humanity. It must be kept within reach. Yet, the hard truth is that the world has failed to ensure we remain below 1.5 degrees," he says.

"Science now tells us that a temporary overshoot beyond the 1.5 limit is inevitable. We need a paradigm shift to limit this overshoot's magnitude and duration and quickly drive it down."

Scientists have identified several tipping points that could be triggered as temperatures rise, including the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the potential conversion of the Amazon rainforest from carbon sink to carbon source.

Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, has described overshooting 1.5°C as "a woeful political failure" that will bring increased damages and tipping point risks.

The difference between scenarios matters significantly: warming of 2°C versus 1.5°C translates to an additional ten centimetres of sea level rise by 2100, exposing 10.4 million more people to flooding.

Renewable energy revolution offers hope

Climate Analytics points to rapid advances in renewable energy and battery technology over the past five years as evidence that catching up on lost time is still possible.

Neil Grant, Senior Expert at Climate Analytics, notes that while the last five years have been far from ideal, they have seen renewables and batteries shatter records globally.

The report calls for an even faster scaling of renewable energy, climate technology and electrification across all sectors, but particularly transport, heating and heavy industry.

However, stocktakes of G20 economies show wildly different trajectories, with only seven on track to achieve net zero by mid-century.

China's emissions may peak this year rather than at decade's end, driven by remarkable renewable growth, whilst India and Indonesia lack adequate policies to curb emissions.

The withdrawal of America's net zero target alone added 0.1°C to warming projections, with scrapping its Paris Agreement pledges adding another 0.1°C.